Determinants of the COVID-19 recovery rate: a case study for the municipality of Belo Horizonte – MG

Abstract

Objective: To analyze the evolution of the efficiency of the public health network in the municipality of Belo Horizonte in treating Covid-19. Methods: The methodology known as Two-stage Data Envelopment Analysis was used, in which the efficiency index of Covid-19 treatment by public hospitals in Belo Horizonte, obtained in the first stage, was regressed with environmental variables, i.e., variables that are beyond the control of municipal managers. Results: While the relative efficiency indices showed a downward and oscillating behavior over time, the environmental variables with power to influence the efficiency indices, and that had a coefficient sign as expected, were only the “ward occupancy rate”, the “ICU occupancy rate” and the fictitious “week with vacation”. Conclusion: Although the hypotheses were not fully met, it is important to note that vaccines had the effect of changing the profile of inpatients by decreasing their average age.