Analysis of the effectiveness of social restriction policies for COVID-19 in the city of Fortaleza-CE

Abstract

Objective: Due to the problem of COVID-19, the city of Fortaleza-CE stands out for the high lethality rate observed so far. In order to inhibit the spread of the disease, managers had to implement restrictive measures to contain it, and thereby reduce the chances of overloading the hospital beds available for treatment. In this regard, this article aims to analyze the effectiveness of social isolation policies in the city of Fortaleza-CE. Methods: For this, the SIR model (Susceptible, Infectious, or Recovered) proposed by Kermack and McKendrick (1927) was used as empirical support for diseases of primary infection. The data for the study were collected in Cota (2020), between the period from 16/03/2020 to 05/31/2020. Results: The results show that, with the beginning of the quarantine, the average transmission rate went from 0.4427 to 0.0945, a reduction of about -75.59%. After the implementation of the lockdown, the average rate was 0.0349, which represents a -88.69% reduction in the virus transmission rate. Conclusion: It is concluded, therefore, that the implementation of restrictive policies reduced the transmission rate and the number of cases of the disease.